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The media are abuzz with comparisons of Palin with Obama. I agree with many of them, especially the uncanny mirror-image, least of which are the black male/white female and the ephemeral Barack vs. down-to-earth Palin ones. But the symmetry goes a little askew when we realize that Palin is more liberal than conservative, whereas there is no doubt of Obama's left-leanings. And one would think that true conservatives would go for the real deal - a conservative white male - rather than a neo-connish white female. But, Obama's awful moment saying that small town people bitterly cling to their guns and religion has hit deep and hard. I'm not surprised that Palin's clear, unapologetic embrace of these things that Obama scorned has won her so many followers. That is certainly a great part of her appeal.
But, is Obama her true challenger? If Obama squeaks through to another presidential run, if Palin decides to go for 2012, and if the famously cautious Hillary Clinton tries her luck again (a lot of ifs, I know), I predict that Palin's true nemesis will be Clinton, not Obama.
Clinton has been going through months of grinding work traveling the world as Secretary of State. She shows surprising moments of bluntness, clarity and forthrightness. One of which is when she challenged the Pakistani government of not doing all it can to find bin Laden. This Vanity Fair article on her, albeit very positive and glowing (something I doubt the magazine would acquiesce to for Palin), describes her as a dedicated, focused and hardworking politician, who genuinely wants to do something positive for her country. She also comes across as surprisingly kind and considerate, as well as showing the occasional good-will to party with her (lesser?) colleagues.
I think she will be the formidable foe for Palin. They probably hold similar views on many things, seeing that Palin shifts center right, while Clinton is center-left, and both edging more towards the center as time goes on. Clinton may be the surprise deal coming closer to conservatism than expected.
I think also, despite Obama’s offer of the post of Secreteray of State to Clinton, she has been bounced around and bruised quite a bit by Obama and his entourage. The strange betrayal over her husband’s “racist” remarks in South Carolina during her presidential campaign, her humbling performance of campaigning for Obama after her defeat, and now her almost thankless job of putting American on a positive, if not leadership, role for the rest of the world, is going more-or-less unnoticed. But, this is the kind of work, hard and dedicated, that Palin shunned when she left her governorship. The kind of work which would have seasoned her well for what could be the fight of her life in 2012. Clinton might just be that competitor.
